Betting Lines
| Spread | LONG -6.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 147.5 Over |
| Money | LONG -265 UPST +215 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | LONG win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | LONG +7 | 157 | Won |
| Massey | LONG -3.4 (+3.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 148.5 (+8.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 61% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 67% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | LONG -2.5 (+4.5) | 146.3 (+10.7) | 63% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | LONG -4.3 (+2.7) | 145.0 (+12.0) | 75% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | LONG -2.5 (+4.5) | 142.6 (+14.4) | 62% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | LONG -2.3 (+4.7) | 144.0 (+13.0) | 61% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 30, 2026 | UPST 65 – 60 LONG |
| Mar 1, 2025 | LONG 83 – 66 UPST |
| Jan 25, 2025 | LONG 80 – 54 UPST |
| Feb 8, 2024 | UPST 69 – 64 LONG |
| Jan 18, 2024 | UPST 73 – 71 LONG |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | LONG | UPST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 16-16 | 13-19 |
| Conference | 8-8 | 5-11 |
| Home | 11-4 | 10-5 |
| Away | 4-10 | 3-13 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.9 | 71.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 76.2 | 75.7 |
| Massey | -6.8 (#270) | -7.3 (#277) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.56 (#302) | -1.48 (#297) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.90 (#297) | -2.05 (#307) |
| RPI | 0.416 (#322) | 0.450 (#267) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | LONG | UPST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.5% | 42.8% |
| 3PT% | 30.3% | 32.8% |
| REB / G | 35.8 | 35.1 |
| OREB / G | 11.7 | 10.7 |
| AST / TO | 0.90 | 0.91 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.9% | 48.5% |
| TOV% | 19.6% | 17.7% |
| ORB% | 33.7% | 28.5% |
| FT Rate | 29.8% | 23.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.4% | 51.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.5% | 16.2% |
| DRB% | 71.9% | 67.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 29.2% | 26.2% |
Game Analysis
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