Betting Lines
| Spread | LONG -5.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 135.5 Over |
| Money | UPST +225 LONG -225 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UPST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UPST +2 | 144 | Won |
| Massey | LONG -6.3 (+8.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 137.1 (+6.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 25% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 19% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | LONG -6.3 (+8.3) | 139.4 (+4.6) | 29% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | LONG -6.6 (+8.6) | 137.9 (+6.1) | 30% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | LONG -6.0 (+8.0) | 136.2 (+7.8) | 25% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | LONG -6.4 (+8.4) | 136.4 (+7.6) | 27% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 14, 2026 | LONG 82 – 75 UPST |
| Jan 30, 2026 | UPST 65 – 60 LONG |
| Mar 1, 2025 | LONG 83 – 66 UPST |
| Jan 25, 2025 | LONG 80 – 54 UPST |
| Feb 8, 2024 | UPST 69 – 64 LONG |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UPST | LONG |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 10-20 | 21-14 |
| Conference | 5-11 | 6-10 |
| Home | 6-7 | 13-3 |
| Away | 4-12 | 5-10 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 3-1 |
| Last 5 | 0-5 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 68.5 | 72.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.8 | 70.2 |
| Massey | -8.4 (#306) | 1.7 (#141) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.60 (#311) | 0.19 (#160) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.25 (#319) | 0.00 (#173) |
| RPI | 0.431 (#291) | 0.501 (#172) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UPST | LONG |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.7% | 44.3% |
| 3PT% | 33.3% | 30.5% |
| REB / G | 30.8 | 37.6 |
| OREB / G | 9.8 | 12.9 |
| AST / TO | 1.10 | 0.94 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.5% | 48.6% |
| TOV% | 16.6% | 19.0% |
| ORB% | 26.4% | 36.9% |
| FT Rate | 19.2% | 24.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 55.1% | 47.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.0% | 20.4% |
| DRB% | 67.8% | 74.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 34.3% | 24.1% |
Game Analysis
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