Betting Lines
| Spread | LONG -7.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 141.5 Under |
| Money | LONG -250 UPST +260 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | LONG win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UPST +5 | 133 | Lost |
| Massey | LONG -10.0 (-15.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 140.2 (-7.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 82% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 85% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | LONG -8.2 (-13.2) | 143.6 (-10.6) | 78% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | LONG -8.5 (-13.5) | 140.8 (-7.8) | 79% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | LONG -7.6 (-12.6) | 140.2 (-7.2) | 78% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | LONG -7.8 (-12.8) | 142.3 (-9.3) | 75% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 14, 2026 | LONG 82 – 75 UPST |
| Jan 30, 2026 | UPST 65 – 60 LONG |
| Mar 1, 2025 | LONG 83 – 66 UPST |
| Jan 25, 2025 | LONG 80 – 54 UPST |
| Jan 18, 2024 | UPST 73 – 71 LONG |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | LONG | UPST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 21-14 | 10-20 |
| Conference | 6-10 | 5-11 |
| Home | 13-3 | 6-7 |
| Away | 5-10 | 4-12 |
| Neutral | 3-1 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.9 | 68.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.2 | 74.8 |
| Massey | -0.7 (#176) | -7.3 (#292) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.67 (#236) | -1.55 (#310) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.83 (#239) | -1.92 (#309) |
| RPI | 0.474 (#220) | 0.425 (#308) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | LONG | UPST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.7% | 42.8% |
| 3PT% | 30.5% | 32.3% |
| REB / G | 37.2 | 30.9 |
| OREB / G | 13.3 | 9.4 |
| AST / TO | 0.98 | 1.11 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.7% | 49.3% |
| TOV% | 18.0% | 16.0% |
| ORB% | 37.6% | 25.9% |
| FT Rate | 26.5% | 18.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.6% | 54.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.6% | 18.3% |
| DRB% | 74.6% | 67.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.1% | 32.9% |
Game Analysis
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