Betting Lines
| Spread | LONG -1.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 147.5 Under |
| Money | UPST +102 LONG -122 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UPST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UPST +5 | 125 | Won |
| Massey | UPST -2.8 (+2.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 150.3 (-25.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 53% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 45% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UPST -1.0 (+4.0) | 145.7 (-20.7) | 52% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UPST -0.2 (+4.8) | 144.7 (-19.7) | 49% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UPST -0.5 (+4.5) | 144.1 (-19.1) | 54% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UPST -0.9 (+4.1) | 144.8 (-19.8) | 54% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 14, 2026 | LONG 82 – 75 UPST |
| Mar 1, 2025 | LONG 83 – 66 UPST |
| Jan 25, 2025 | LONG 80 – 54 UPST |
| Feb 8, 2024 | UPST 69 – 64 LONG |
| Jan 18, 2024 | UPST 73 – 71 LONG |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UPST | LONG |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 13-19 | 16-16 |
| Conference | 5-11 | 8-8 |
| Home | 10-5 | 11-4 |
| Away | 3-13 | 4-10 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.0 | 75.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 75.7 | 76.2 |
| Massey | -7.2 (#275) | -6.9 (#269) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.68 (#314) | -1.22 (#280) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.37 (#319) | -1.54 (#271) |
| RPI | 0.440 (#282) | 0.432 (#292) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UPST | LONG |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.3% | 44.3% |
| 3PT% | 32.4% | 30.4% |
| REB / G | 35.3 | 35.7 |
| OREB / G | 10.7 | 11.8 |
| AST / TO | 0.91 | 0.93 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.0% | 49.7% |
| TOV% | 17.3% | 19.6% |
| ORB% | 28.2% | 34.0% |
| FT Rate | 23.5% | 32.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.4% | 54.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.7% | 19.7% |
| DRB% | 68.6% | 70.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 27.7% | 28.5% |
Game Analysis
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