Betting Lines
| Spread | LONG -11.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 157.5 Under |
| Money | LONG -900 UPST +550 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | LONG win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | LONG +26 | 134 | Won |
| Massey | LONG -14.7 (+11.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 159.3 (-25.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 97% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 98% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | LONG -12.4 (+13.6) | 153.5 (-19.5) | 87% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | LONG -12.0 (+14.0) | 154.0 (-20.0) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | LONG -11.4 (+14.6) | 154.6 (-20.6) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | LONG -11.9 (+14.1) | 154.6 (-20.6) | 87% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 14, 2026 | LONG 82 – 75 UPST |
| Jan 30, 2026 | UPST 65 – 60 LONG |
| Mar 1, 2025 | LONG 83 – 66 UPST |
| Feb 8, 2024 | UPST 69 – 64 LONG |
| Jan 18, 2024 | UPST 73 – 71 LONG |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | LONG | UPST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 18-14 | 6-26 |
| Conference | 7-9 | 2-14 |
| Home | 12-4 | 4-10 |
| Away | 5-7 | 2-14 |
| Neutral | 1-3 | 0-2 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 76.6 | 72.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 76.1 | 85.5 |
| Massey | -1.5 (#186) | -12.7 (#345) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.40 (#137) | -2.39 (#339) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.26 (#156) | -2.88 (#336) |
| RPI | 0.519 (#143) | 0.399 (#332) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | LONG | UPST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.4% | 44.7% |
| 3PT% | 31.6% | 27.6% |
| REB / G | 33.2 | 33.5 |
| OREB / G | 11.4 | 9.1 |
| AST / TO | 1.01 | 0.87 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.1% | 49.5% |
| TOV% | 17.7% | 19.4% |
| ORB% | 33.0% | 25.4% |
| FT Rate | 34.4% | 22.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 54.6% | 56.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.4% | 15.4% |
| DRB% | 69.1% | 69.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 28.0% | 27.3% |
Game Analysis
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