Betting Lines
| Spread | LONG -7.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 161.5 Under |
| Money | UPST +250 LONG -300 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UPST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | LONG +17 | 149 | Lost |
| Massey | LONG -6.6 (-10.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 160.9 (-11.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 18% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 16% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | LONG -7.6 (-9.4) | 153.5 (-4.5) | 26% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | LONG -5.7 (-11.3) | 156.7 (-7.7) | 26% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | LONG -5.9 (-11.1) | 157.9 (-8.9) | 32% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | LONG -6.7 (-10.3) | 157.1 (-8.1) | 33% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 14, 2026 | LONG 82 – 75 UPST |
| Jan 30, 2026 | UPST 65 – 60 LONG |
| Jan 25, 2025 | LONG 80 – 54 UPST |
| Feb 8, 2024 | UPST 69 – 64 LONG |
| Jan 18, 2024 | UPST 73 – 71 LONG |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UPST | LONG |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 6-26 | 18-14 |
| Conference | 2-14 | 7-9 |
| Home | 4-10 | 12-4 |
| Away | 2-14 | 5-7 |
| Neutral | 0-2 | 1-3 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L3 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.6 | 76.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 85.5 | 76.1 |
| Massey | -12.6 (#342) | -2.9 (#212) |
| Bradley-Terry | -2.36 (#345) | -0.29 (#199) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.71 (#337) | -0.43 (#199) |
| RPI | 0.398 (#346) | 0.484 (#209) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UPST | LONG |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.6% | 45.9% |
| 3PT% | 30.2% | 33.3% |
| REB / G | 33.0 | 32.7 |
| OREB / G | 9.3 | 10.6 |
| AST / TO | 0.95 | 1.01 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.1% | 51.6% |
| TOV% | 18.7% | 18.0% |
| ORB% | 25.3% | 31.5% |
| FT Rate | 20.4% | 33.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 56.3% | 55.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.4% | 20.6% |
| DRB% | 68.5% | 69.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 29.2% | 26.0% |
Game Analysis
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