Betting Lines
| Spread | IOWA -5.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 152.0 Under |
| Money | IOWA -240 MD +196 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | IOWA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | IOWA +14 | 148 | Won |
| Massey | IOWA -5.1 (+8.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 152.4 (-4.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 67% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 71% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | IOWA -4.2 (+9.8) | 151.6 (-3.6) | 70% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | IOWA -5.0 (+9.0) | 150.9 (-2.9) | 79% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | IOWA -4.1 (+9.9) | 148.9 (-0.9) | 68% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | IOWA -4.5 (+9.5) | 149.6 (-1.6) | 70% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 11, 2026 | IOWA 75 – 64 MD |
| Feb 11, 2026 | MD 77 – 70 IOWA |
| Dec 6, 2025 | IOWA 83 – 64 MD |
| Feb 16, 2025 | MD 101 – 75 IOWA |
| Feb 15, 2024 | MD 78 – 66 IOWA |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | IOWA | MD |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 19-14 | 22-13 |
| Conference | 11-9 | 11-9 |
| Home | 14-3 | 16-1 |
| Away | 4-7 | 2-9 |
| Neutral | 1-4 | 4-3 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L3 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 80.1 | 69.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.7 | 63.5 |
| Massey | 11.3 (#31) | 10.2 (#39) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.77 (#44) | 1.75 (#46) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.32 (#46) | 2.23 (#50) |
| RPI | 0.571 (#64) | 0.593 (#35) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | IOWA | MD |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.8% | 44.9% |
| 3PT% | 33.4% | 31.4% |
| REB / G | 39.3 | 36.3 |
| OREB / G | 12.6 | 10.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.67 | 0.86 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.1% | 51.2% |
| TOV% | 14.0% | 18.3% |
| ORB% | 32.5% | 30.2% |
| FT Rate | 25.7% | 26.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.4% | 44.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.5% | 18.6% |
| DRB% | 72.5% | 71.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 14.3% | 20.6% |
Game Analysis
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