Betting Lines
| Spread | NMSU -10.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 134.5 Under |
| Money | NMSU -600 UTA +450 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | NMSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UTA +11 | 121 | Lost |
| Massey | NMSU -13.0 (-24.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 136.4 (-15.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 84% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 92% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | NMSU -9.9 (-20.9) | 130.8 (-9.8) | 84% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | NMSU -11.4 (-22.4) | 131.7 (-10.7) | 84% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | NMSU -9.1 (-20.1) | 136.0 (-15.0) | 84% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | NMSU -9.4 (-20.4) | 135.6 (-14.6) | 84% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | NMSU | UTA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 9-15 | 11-21 |
| Conference | 2-16 | 6-12 |
| Home | 6-7 | 6-8 |
| Away | 1-12 | 4-9 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 1-4 |
| Last 5 | 0-5 | 0-5 |
| Streak | L1 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.2 | 62.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 75.2 | 70.0 |
| Massey | 2.2 (#135) | -6.8 (#291) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.43 (#218) | -1.42 (#300) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.12 (#189) | -1.69 (#295) |
| RPI | 0.504 (#173) | 0.449 (#270) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | NMSU | UTA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.2% | 36.6% |
| 3PT% | 37.7% | 26.4% |
| REB / G | 33.7 | 35.0 |
| OREB / G | 9.6 | 13.2 |
| AST / TO | 0.95 | 0.74 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.1% | 40.8% |
| TOV% | 18.3% | 20.9% |
| ORB% | 27.7% | 34.6% |
| FT Rate | 22.7% | 22.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.1% | 51.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.2% | 19.4% |
| DRB% | 71.9% | 68.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 26.3% | 25.5% |
Game Analysis
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