Betting Lines
| Spread | LAS -2.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 144.5 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | LAS win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | JOES +12 | 130 | Lost |
| Massey | LAS -1.5 (-13.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 147.2 (-17.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 78% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 72% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | LAS -0.6 (-12.6) | 147.9 (-17.9) | 53% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | LAS -0.2 (-12.2) | 145.5 (-15.5) | 48% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | LAS -1.2 (-13.2) | 146.6 (-16.6) | 57% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | LAS -1.1 (-13.1) | 148.0 (-18.0) | 54% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 7, 2026 | JOES 88 – 76 LAS |
| Jan 31, 2026 | JOES 67 – 58 LAS |
| Mar 13, 2025 | JOES 75 – 70 LAS |
| Mar 8, 2025 | LAS 81 – 74 JOES |
| Feb 13, 2025 | JOES 75 – 63 LAS |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | LAS | JOES |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 15-19 | 16-17 |
| Conference | 7-11 | 8-10 |
| Home | 8-7 | 10-6 |
| Away | 5-8 | 4-7 |
| Neutral | 2-4 | 2-4 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.8 | 72.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.6 | 72.4 |
| Massey | -5.2 (#260) | -2.8 (#225) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.39 (#213) | -1.01 (#276) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.07 (#259) | -1.22 (#272) |
| RPI | 0.485 (#199) | 0.458 (#252) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | LAS | JOES |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.0% | 41.6% |
| 3PT% | 33.3% | 33.8% |
| REB / G | 34.6 | 34.2 |
| OREB / G | 10.6 | 10.4 |
| AST / TO | 0.92 | 0.97 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.8% | 49.3% |
| TOV% | 18.6% | 18.7% |
| ORB% | 28.6% | 28.5% |
| FT Rate | 18.7% | 23.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.7% | 51.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.0% | 19.8% |
| DRB% | 68.9% | 69.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.3% | 22.2% |
Game Analysis
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