Betting Lines
| Spread | JOES -11.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 148.5 Under |
| Money | JOES -800 LAS +500 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | JOES win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | JOES +12 | 138 | Won |
| Massey | JOES -13.3 (-1.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 147.8 (-9.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 77% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | JOES -11.4 (+0.6) | 145.4 (-7.4) | 85% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | JOES -11.9 (+0.1) | 147.4 (-9.4) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | JOES -12.0 (+0.0) | 143.4 (-5.4) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | JOES -12.5 (-0.5) | 143.6 (-5.6) | 87% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 7, 2026 | JOES 88 – 76 LAS |
| Jan 31, 2026 | JOES 67 – 58 LAS |
| Mar 13, 2025 | JOES 75 – 70 LAS |
| Mar 8, 2025 | LAS 81 – 74 JOES |
| Dec 8, 2024 | JOES 82 – 68 LAS |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | JOES | LAS |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 22-13 | 14-19 |
| Conference | 11-7 | 5-13 |
| Home | 13-5 | 10-5 |
| Away | 4-6 | 2-10 |
| Neutral | 5-2 | 2-4 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.1 | 70.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.6 | 75.5 |
| Massey | 6.6 (#87) | -3.6 (#225) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.67 (#115) | 0.04 (#166) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.90 (#109) | -0.30 (#191) |
| RPI | 0.539 (#103) | 0.515 (#151) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | JOES | LAS |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.2% | 41.0% |
| 3PT% | 33.4% | 31.2% |
| REB / G | 37.5 | 37.0 |
| OREB / G | 10.5 | 12.4 |
| AST / TO | 1.30 | 1.07 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.8% | 46.1% |
| TOV% | 17.0% | 15.2% |
| ORB% | 30.0% | 31.3% |
| FT Rate | 23.3% | 21.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.9% | 52.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.4% | 17.0% |
| DRB% | 73.8% | 70.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.7% | 18.7% |
Game Analysis
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