Betting Lines
| Spread | JOES -2.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 142.5 Under |
| Money | LAS +120 JOES -142 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | LAS win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | JOES +9 | 125 | Lost |
| Massey | LAS -0.5 (-9.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 138.9 (-13.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 41% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 46% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | JOES -0.3 (-8.7) | 136.4 (-11.4) | 44% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | JOES -1.4 (-7.6) | 137.5 (-12.5) | 40% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | LAS -0.1 (-9.1) | 134.3 (-9.3) | 49% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | JOES -0.1 (-8.9) | 135.6 (-10.6) | 43% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 7, 2026 | JOES 88 – 76 LAS |
| Mar 13, 2025 | JOES 75 – 70 LAS |
| Mar 8, 2025 | LAS 81 – 74 JOES |
| Feb 13, 2025 | JOES 75 – 63 LAS |
| Dec 8, 2024 | JOES 82 – 68 LAS |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | LAS | JOES |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 9-23 | 24-12 |
| Conference | 5-13 | 13-5 |
| Home | 8-6 | 13-3 |
| Away | 1-13 | 8-8 |
| Neutral | 0-4 | 3-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 66.9 | 71.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 75.0 | 70.7 |
| Massey | -3.6 (#222) | -1.0 (#184) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.57 (#222) | 0.34 (#132) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.64 (#216) | 0.16 (#149) |
| RPI | 0.494 (#193) | 0.521 (#129) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | LAS | JOES |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.6% | 42.0% |
| 3PT% | 30.9% | 29.1% |
| REB / G | 34.4 | 37.7 |
| OREB / G | 12.0 | 11.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.06 | 1.25 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 46.4% | 48.4% |
| TOV% | 19.3% | 17.0% |
| ORB% | 34.4% | 32.4% |
| FT Rate | 27.6% | 24.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 54.1% | 49.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.7% | 15.9% |
| DRB% | 67.4% | 68.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.4% | 19.4% |
Game Analysis
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