Betting Lines
| Spread | JOES -11.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 142.5 Over |
| Money | JOES -675 LAS +490 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | JOES win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | JOES +12 | 164 | Won |
| Massey | JOES -8.3 (+3.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 136.4 (+27.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 89% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | JOES -8.8 (+3.2) | 135.8 (+28.2) | 82% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | JOES -9.7 (+2.3) | 139.1 (+24.9) | 85% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | JOES -8.6 (+3.4) | 133.2 (+30.8) | 81% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | JOES -8.4 (+3.6) | 134.4 (+29.6) | 83% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 31, 2026 | JOES 67 – 58 LAS |
| Mar 13, 2025 | JOES 75 – 70 LAS |
| Mar 8, 2025 | LAS 81 – 74 JOES |
| Feb 13, 2025 | JOES 75 – 63 LAS |
| Dec 8, 2024 | JOES 82 – 68 LAS |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | JOES | LAS |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 24-12 | 9-23 |
| Conference | 13-5 | 5-13 |
| Home | 13-3 | 8-6 |
| Away | 8-8 | 1-13 |
| Neutral | 3-1 | 0-4 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.9 | 66.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.7 | 75.0 |
| Massey | 1.8 (#138) | -3.6 (#220) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.88 (#98) | -0.69 (#235) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.92 (#103) | -0.80 (#231) |
| RPI | 0.548 (#80) | 0.481 (#228) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | JOES | LAS |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.1% | 40.6% |
| 3PT% | 30.2% | 30.1% |
| REB / G | 37.8 | 34.7 |
| OREB / G | 11.2 | 12.1 |
| AST / TO | 1.30 | 1.06 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.0% | 45.4% |
| TOV% | 17.0% | 18.7% |
| ORB% | 31.2% | 33.4% |
| FT Rate | 21.9% | 27.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.5% | 54.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.5% | 17.2% |
| DRB% | 69.2% | 68.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.4% | 21.1% |
Game Analysis
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