Betting Lines
| Spread | JOES -9.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 145.5 Over |
| Money | LAS +400 JOES -600 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | LAS win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | LAS +7 | 155 | Won |
| Massey | JOES -8.5 (+15.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 146.3 (+8.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 29% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 19% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | JOES -7.3 (+14.3) | 142.7 (+12.3) | 34% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | JOES -7.6 (+14.6) | 144.6 (+10.4) | 27% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | JOES -6.5 (+13.5) | 143.7 (+11.3) | 27% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | JOES -7.7 (+14.7) | 142.9 (+12.1) | 35% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 7, 2026 | JOES 88 – 76 LAS |
| Jan 31, 2026 | JOES 67 – 58 LAS |
| Mar 13, 2025 | JOES 75 – 70 LAS |
| Feb 13, 2025 | JOES 75 – 63 LAS |
| Dec 8, 2024 | JOES 82 – 68 LAS |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | LAS | JOES |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 14-19 | 22-13 |
| Conference | 5-13 | 11-7 |
| Home | 10-5 | 13-5 |
| Away | 2-10 | 4-6 |
| Neutral | 2-4 | 5-2 |
| Last 5 | 0-5 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.9 | 75.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 75.5 | 68.6 |
| Massey | -4.1 (#232) | 7.7 (#76) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.48 (#213) | 1.01 (#89) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.80 (#230) | 1.31 (#86) |
| RPI | 0.486 (#208) | 0.561 (#71) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | LAS | JOES |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.3% | 45.2% |
| 3PT% | 31.3% | 34.6% |
| REB / G | 36.3 | 36.6 |
| OREB / G | 12.0 | 10.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.04 | 1.33 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 45.6% | 53.2% |
| TOV% | 15.5% | 16.7% |
| ORB% | 30.6% | 29.5% |
| FT Rate | 21.8% | 23.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.2% | 46.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.9% | 16.0% |
| DRB% | 71.2% | 72.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.4% | 19.4% |
Game Analysis
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