Betting Lines
| Spread | JOES -12.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 144.5 Over |
| Money | JOES -1000 LAS +600 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | JOES win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | JOES +5 | 145 | Won |
| Massey | JOES -10.7 (-5.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 144.8 (+0.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 76% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 85% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | JOES -8.3 (-3.3) | 142.9 (+2.1) | 78% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | JOES -9.1 (-4.1) | 143.9 (+1.1) | 80% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | JOES -9.2 (-4.2) | 142.1 (+2.9) | 81% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | JOES -9.0 (-4.0) | 142.9 (+2.1) | 81% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 7, 2026 | JOES 88 – 76 LAS |
| Jan 31, 2026 | JOES 67 – 58 LAS |
| Mar 8, 2025 | LAS 81 – 74 JOES |
| Feb 13, 2025 | JOES 75 – 63 LAS |
| Dec 8, 2024 | JOES 82 – 68 LAS |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | JOES | LAS |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 22-13 | 14-19 |
| Conference | 11-7 | 5-13 |
| Home | 13-5 | 10-5 |
| Away | 4-6 | 2-10 |
| Neutral | 5-2 | 2-4 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.1 | 70.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.6 | 75.5 |
| Massey | 7.3 (#81) | -3.4 (#221) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.88 (#97) | -0.29 (#197) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.16 (#91) | -0.55 (#207) |
| RPI | 0.556 (#74) | 0.496 (#188) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | JOES | LAS |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.2% | 40.6% |
| 3PT% | 34.7% | 32.0% |
| REB / G | 36.5 | 36.5 |
| OREB / G | 10.0 | 11.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.32 | 1.02 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.2% | 45.9% |
| TOV% | 16.7% | 15.6% |
| ORB% | 29.5% | 30.6% |
| FT Rate | 23.8% | 23.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.8% | 52.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.1% | 16.7% |
| DRB% | 72.3% | 71.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.8% | 20.5% |
Game Analysis
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