Betting Lines
| Spread | JOES -7.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 152.5 Under |
| Money | LAS +230 JOES -280 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | LAS win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | JOES +14 | 150 | Lost |
| Massey | LAS -0.4 (-14.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 148.3 (+1.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 53% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 58% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | JOES -0.1 (-13.9) | 148.2 (+1.8) | 49% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | JOES -0.3 (-13.7) | 147.3 (+2.7) | 49% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | JOES -0.6 (-13.4) | 145.3 (+4.7) | 47% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | JOES -0.6 (-13.4) | 147.2 (+2.8) | 48% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 7, 2026 | JOES 88 – 76 LAS |
| Jan 31, 2026 | JOES 67 – 58 LAS |
| Mar 13, 2025 | JOES 75 – 70 LAS |
| Mar 8, 2025 | LAS 81 – 74 JOES |
| Feb 13, 2025 | JOES 75 – 63 LAS |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | LAS | JOES |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 14-19 | 22-13 |
| Conference | 5-13 | 11-7 |
| Home | 10-5 | 13-5 |
| Away | 2-10 | 4-6 |
| Neutral | 2-4 | 5-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.9 | 75.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 75.5 | 68.6 |
| Massey | 2.1 (#130) | 1.6 (#136) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.34 (#143) | 0.23 (#154) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.03 (#170) | -0.33 (#185) |
| RPI | 0.532 (#119) | 0.514 (#149) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | LAS | JOES |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.5% | 42.5% |
| 3PT% | 33.9% | 33.5% |
| REB / G | 39.3 | 36.2 |
| OREB / G | 12.4 | 10.6 |
| AST / TO | 1.07 | 1.30 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.0% | 50.2% |
| TOV% | 15.3% | 16.8% |
| ORB% | 32.7% | 29.4% |
| FT Rate | 23.7% | 24.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.5% | 48.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.7% | 17.9% |
| DRB% | 74.0% | 70.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.5% | 18.6% |
Game Analysis
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