Betting Lines
| Spread | ILL -9.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 136.5 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MINN win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ILL +18 | 138 | Lost |
| Massey | ILL -10.9 (-7.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 138.2 (-0.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 18% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 9% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ILL -10.9 (-7.1) | 134.8 (+3.2) | 18% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ILL -10.6 (-7.4) | 136.4 (+1.6) | 18% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ILL -9.7 (-8.3) | 136.5 (+1.5) | 17% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ILL -10.3 (-7.7) | 137.3 (+0.7) | 17% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 17, 2026 | ILL 77 – 67 MINN |
| Feb 8, 2025 | ILL 95 – 74 MINN |
| Feb 29, 2024 | ILL 105 – 97 MINN |
| Feb 21, 2023 | ILL 78 – 69 MINN |
| Jan 5, 2022 | ILL 76 – 53 MINN |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MINN | ILL |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 9-22 | 20-13 |
| Conference | 2-17 | 11-9 |
| Home | 6-11 | 15-2 |
| Away | 1-9 | 3-7 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 2-4 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 62.9 | 74.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.0 | 67.2 |
| Massey | -1.7 (#210) | 13.1 (#18) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.11 (#190) | 2.10 (#31) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.50 (#214) | 2.57 (#33) |
| RPI | 0.484 (#203) | 0.579 (#51) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MINN | ILL |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.6% | 46.0% |
| 3PT% | 33.3% | 33.2% |
| REB / G | 34.8 | 38.9 |
| OREB / G | 9.4 | 11.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.07 | 1.00 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.0% | 53.5% |
| TOV% | 19.8% | 19.8% |
| ORB% | 27.4% | 33.7% |
| FT Rate | 18.9% | 22.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.5% | 44.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.5% | 21.3% |
| DRB% | 67.9% | 72.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 15.8% | 20.9% |
Game Analysis
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