Betting Lines
| Spread | ILL -7.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 140.5 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MINN win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ILL +23 | 129 | Lost |
| Massey | ILL -2.9 (-20.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 143.6 (-14.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 92% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 95% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ILL -2.2 (-20.8) | 143.1 (-14.1) | 47% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ILL -4.1 (-18.9) | 143.3 (-14.3) | 32% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MINN -0.0 (-23.0) | 146.2 (-17.2) | 55% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | ILL -2.3 (-20.7) | 146.6 (-17.6) | 50% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 17, 2026 | ILL 77 – 67 MINN |
| Feb 8, 2025 | ILL 95 – 74 MINN |
| Feb 29, 2024 | ILL 105 – 97 MINN |
| Feb 21, 2023 | ILL 78 – 69 MINN |
| Jan 16, 2023 | ILL 78 – 60 MINN |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MINN | ILL |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 13-17 | 23-10 |
| Conference | 4-16 | 15-5 |
| Home | 8-7 | 13-3 |
| Away | 3-9 | 7-4 |
| Neutral | 2-1 | 3-3 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L5 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 67.0 | 74.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.2 | 67.2 |
| Massey | 8.6 (#55) | 15.8 (#14) |
| Bradley-Terry | 3.39 (#12) | 1.73 (#57) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 4.45 (#12) | 2.29 (#58) |
| RPI | 0.637 (#15) | 0.592 (#36) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MINN | ILL |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.7% | 47.7% |
| 3PT% | 36.5% | 39.7% |
| REB / G | 33.5 | 43.1 |
| OREB / G | 5.6 | 14.1 |
| AST / TO | 1.34 | 1.11 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.5% | 56.5% |
| TOV% | 14.4% | 21.8% |
| ORB% | 16.9% | 41.6% |
| FT Rate | 20.2% | 23.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 45.2% | 44.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.1% | 16.2% |
| DRB% | 74.5% | 73.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 15.0% | 18.4% |
Game Analysis
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