Betting Lines
| Spread | ILL -7.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 145.5 Over |
| Money | MINN +230 ILL -280 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MINN win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ILL +21 | 169 | Lost |
| Massey | ILL -11.5 (-9.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 146.8 (+22.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 35% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 31% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ILL -9.2 (-11.8) | 148.1 (+20.9) | 23% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ILL -8.0 (-13.0) | 143.9 (+25.1) | 24% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ILL -8.1 (-12.9) | 145.0 (+24.0) | 23% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ILL -8.1 (-12.9) | 146.0 (+23.0) | 24% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 17, 2026 | ILL 77 – 67 MINN |
| Feb 29, 2024 | ILL 105 – 97 MINN |
| Feb 21, 2023 | ILL 78 – 69 MINN |
| Jan 16, 2023 | ILL 78 – 60 MINN |
| Jan 5, 2022 | ILL 76 – 53 MINN |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MINN | ILL |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 15-17 | 22-13 |
| Conference | 7-13 | 12-8 |
| Home | 10-9 | 13-4 |
| Away | 5-5 | 5-5 |
| Neutral | 0-3 | 4-4 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L3 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 68.1 | 83.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.7 | 74.8 |
| Massey | 5.5 (#93) | 20.2 (#9) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.21 (#79) | 2.41 (#37) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.91 (#65) | 3.35 (#30) |
| RPI | 0.536 (#107) | 0.588 (#42) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MINN | ILL |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.0% | 44.3% |
| 3PT% | 32.6% | 30.7% |
| REB / G | 33.9 | 45.3 |
| OREB / G | 10.1 | 13.9 |
| AST / TO | 1.47 | 1.21 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.9% | 51.5% |
| TOV% | 16.4% | 16.2% |
| ORB% | 29.3% | 37.0% |
| FT Rate | 21.2% | 27.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.0% | 44.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.7% | 13.4% |
| DRB% | 69.6% | 75.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.9% | 19.5% |
Game Analysis
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