He just grinned and shook my hand, "No" was all he said. "The Weight" - The Band
Big Ten Conference · State Farm Center · February 21, 2023
Betting Lines
Spread ILL -13.5 Away covered
O/U 135.5 Over
Money ILL -1429 / MINN +700
Model Predictions
Spread Total ILL win
Actual ILL +9 147 Won
Massey ILL -20.4 (-11.4)
Massey Totals 134.9 (+12.1)
Bradley-Terry 96%
Weighted B-T 98%
Efficiency Plus ML ILL -15.8 (-6.8) 140.5 (+6.5) 90%
Baseline Tuned ML ILL -16.2 (-7.2) 139.3 (+7.7) 90%
Baseline ML ILL -17.4 (-8.4) 140.1 (+6.9) 90%
Baseline Plus ML ILL -16.9 (-7.9) 139.8 (+7.2) 90%

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Last 5 Meetings

Jan 17, 2026 ILL 7767 MINN
Feb 8, 2025 ILL 9574 MINN
Feb 29, 2024 ILL 10597 MINN
Jan 16, 2023 ILL 7860 MINN
Jan 5, 2022 ILL 7653 MINN

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings ILL MINN
Overall 20-13 9-22
Conference 11-9 2-17
Home 15-2 6-11
Away 3-7 1-9
Neutral 2-4 2-2
Last 5 2-3 0-5
Streak L3 L1
Avg Pts For 74.3 62.9
Avg Pts Against 67.2 71.0
Massey 13.3 (#20) -3.6 (#228)
Bradley-Terry 2.00 (#39) -0.59 (#237)
W. Bradley-Terry 2.50 (#34) -0.91 (#246)
RPI 0.563 (#64) 0.450 (#277)
Shooting & Four Factors ILL MINN
FG% 45.4% 42.1%
3PT% 31.2% 30.2%
REB / G 38.5 33.9
OREB / G 11.6 8.8
AST / TO 0.99 1.09
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 52.0% 47.5%
TOV% 18.9% 19.5%
ORB% 33.1% 25.3%
FT Rate 22.3% 18.5%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 45.7% 49.4%
Opp TOV% 19.2% 15.0%
DRB% 73.6% 68.8%
Opp FT Rate 20.6% 15.1%

Game Analysis

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