Betting Lines
| Spread | ILL -13.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 135.5 Over |
| Money | ILL -1429 MINN +700 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ILL win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ILL +9 | 147 | Won |
| Massey | ILL -20.4 (-11.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 134.9 (+12.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 96% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 98% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ILL -16.9 (-7.9) | 139.8 (+7.2) | 90% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ILL -15.8 (-6.8) | 140.5 (+6.5) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ILL -16.2 (-7.2) | 139.3 (+7.7) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ILL -17.4 (-8.4) | 140.1 (+6.9) | 90% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 17, 2026 | ILL 77 – 67 MINN |
| Feb 8, 2025 | ILL 95 – 74 MINN |
| Feb 29, 2024 | ILL 105 – 97 MINN |
| Jan 16, 2023 | ILL 78 – 60 MINN |
| Jan 5, 2022 | ILL 76 – 53 MINN |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ILL | MINN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-13 | 9-22 |
| Conference | 11-9 | 2-17 |
| Home | 15-2 | 6-11 |
| Away | 3-7 | 1-9 |
| Neutral | 2-4 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 0-5 |
| Streak | L3 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.3 | 62.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.2 | 71.0 |
| Massey | 13.3 (#20) | -3.6 (#228) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.00 (#39) | -0.59 (#237) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.50 (#34) | -0.91 (#246) |
| RPI | 0.563 (#64) | 0.450 (#277) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ILL | MINN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.4% | 42.1% |
| 3PT% | 31.2% | 30.2% |
| REB / G | 38.5 | 33.9 |
| OREB / G | 11.6 | 8.8 |
| AST / TO | 0.99 | 1.09 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.0% | 47.5% |
| TOV% | 18.9% | 19.5% |
| ORB% | 33.1% | 25.3% |
| FT Rate | 22.3% | 18.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 45.7% | 49.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.2% | 15.0% |
| DRB% | 73.6% | 68.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.6% | 15.1% |
Game Analysis
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