Betting Lines
| Spread | ILL -11.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 155.5 Over |
| Money | ILL -800 MINN +500 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ILL win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ILL +8 | 202 | Won |
| Massey | ILL -11.8 (-3.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 156.2 (+45.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 84% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 88% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ILL -13.1 (-5.1) | 160.0 (+42.0) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ILL -11.4 (-3.4) | 157.8 (+44.2) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ILL -11.6 (-3.6) | 159.5 (+42.5) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ILL -12.8 (-4.8) | 156.4 (+45.6) | 87% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 17, 2026 | ILL 77 – 67 MINN |
| Feb 8, 2025 | ILL 95 – 74 MINN |
| Feb 21, 2023 | ILL 78 – 69 MINN |
| Jan 16, 2023 | ILL 78 – 60 MINN |
| Jan 5, 2022 | ILL 76 – 53 MINN |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ILL | MINN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 29-9 | 19-15 |
| Conference | 14-6 | 9-11 |
| Home | 15-3 | 16-4 |
| Away | 6-5 | 3-9 |
| Neutral | 8-1 | 0-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 83.4 | 75.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 73.3 | 71.9 |
| Massey | 16.8 (#14) | 8.3 (#71) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.27 (#22) | 1.22 (#86) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.04 (#17) | 1.70 (#76) |
| RPI | 0.608 (#17) | 0.515 (#146) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ILL | MINN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.6% | 47.0% |
| 3PT% | 34.5% | 35.5% |
| REB / G | 42.3 | 36.3 |
| OREB / G | 13.1 | 10.6 |
| AST / TO | 1.19 | 1.49 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.5% | 54.0% |
| TOV% | 15.6% | 17.6% |
| ORB% | 36.3% | 31.4% |
| FT Rate | 26.9% | 25.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.6% | 48.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 12.8% | 16.4% |
| DRB% | 74.3% | 70.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.2% | 21.9% |
Game Analysis
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