Betting Lines
| Spread | AAMU -4.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 141.5 Under |
| Money | AAMU -175 ALST +180 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | AAMU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ALST +8 | 130 | Lost |
| Massey | AAMU -6.6 (-14.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 143.2 (-13.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 57% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 54% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | AAMU -2.7 (-10.7) | 145.5 (-15.5) | 65% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | AAMU -3.2 (-11.2) | 144.6 (-14.6) | 62% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | AAMU -3.3 (-11.3) | 143.5 (-13.5) | 63% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | AAMU -3.4 (-11.4) | 143.0 (-13.0) | 66% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 28, 2026 | ALST 89 – 88 AAMU |
| Jan 19, 2026 | AAMU 73 – 69 ALST |
| Mar 1, 2025 | ALST 94 – 52 AAMU |
| Jan 18, 2025 | ALST 69 – 65 AAMU |
| Mar 2, 2024 | AAMU 58 – 53 ALST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | AAMU | ALST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 15-18 | 8-23 |
| Conference | 10-8 | 6-12 |
| Home | 9-8 | 5-5 |
| Away | 5-8 | 2-18 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 1-0 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L6 |
| Avg Pts For | 68.0 | 62.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.0 | 72.5 |
| Massey | -9.8 (#330) | -12.5 (#349) |
| Bradley-Terry | -2.15 (#342) | -1.78 (#324) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.80 (#344) | -2.17 (#323) |
| RPI | 0.362 (#354) | 0.401 (#334) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | AAMU | ALST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.9% | 35.7% |
| 3PT% | 35.7% | 31.4% |
| REB / G | 31.2 | 35.8 |
| OREB / G | 9.8 | 12.4 |
| AST / TO | 0.88 | 0.86 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.7% | 40.6% |
| TOV% | 20.6% | 17.2% |
| ORB% | 27.2% | 30.3% |
| FT Rate | 19.3% | 20.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.8% | 52.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.8% | 17.0% |
| DRB% | 62.9% | 65.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 27.3% | 23.4% |
Game Analysis
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