Betting Lines
| Spread | COFC -16.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 145.5 Under |
| Money | COFC -2000 W&M +1300 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | COFC win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | COFC +28 | 136 | Won |
| Massey | COFC -16.0 (+12.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 144.6 (-8.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | COFC -14.7 (+13.3) | 144.2 (-8.2) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | COFC -12.8 (+15.2) | 144.5 (-8.5) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | COFC -14.1 (+13.9) | 144.0 (-8.0) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | COFC -14.2 (+13.8) | 142.9 (-6.9) | 87% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 6, 2026 | COFC 88 – 79 W&M |
| Feb 4, 2025 | W&M 90 – 75 COFC |
| Feb 20, 2024 | COFC 65 – 57 W&M |
| Feb 3, 2024 | COFC 84 – 83 W&M |
| Feb 4, 2022 | COFC 84 – 61 W&M |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | COFC | W&M |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 31-4 | 13-20 |
| Conference | 16-2 | 7-11 |
| Home | 17-1 | 11-5 |
| Away | 11-2 | 1-14 |
| Neutral | 3-1 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 79.6 | 64.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.2 | 71.7 |
| Massey | 7.0 (#80) | -5.1 (#258) |
| Bradley-Terry | 3.20 (#7) | -0.55 (#228) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.35 (#14) | -1.11 (#261) |
| RPI | 0.615 (#20) | 0.480 (#215) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | COFC | W&M |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.3% | 42.1% |
| 3PT% | 32.7% | 35.4% |
| REB / G | 39.6 | 32.9 |
| OREB / G | 13.4 | 10.9 |
| AST / TO | 1.03 | 0.93 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.1% | 48.1% |
| TOV% | 17.4% | 18.8% |
| ORB% | 34.7% | 31.0% |
| FT Rate | 23.5% | 20.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.8% | 54.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.3% | 17.4% |
| DRB% | 73.9% | 69.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 17.5% | 20.2% |
Game Analysis
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