Betting Lines
| Spread | COFC -12.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 151.5 Over |
| Money | W&M +500 COFC -800 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | W&M win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | COFC +1 | 167 | Lost |
| Massey | COFC -9.5 (+8.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 156.5 (+10.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 10% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 6% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | COFC -10.2 (+9.2) | 154.8 (+12.2) | 18% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | COFC -8.2 (+7.2) | 149.9 (+17.1) | 20% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | COFC -8.4 (+7.4) | 151.7 (+15.3) | 21% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | COFC -8.3 (+7.3) | 150.5 (+16.5) | 20% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 6, 2026 | COFC 88 – 79 W&M |
| Feb 4, 2025 | W&M 90 – 75 COFC |
| Feb 20, 2024 | COFC 65 – 57 W&M |
| Jan 16, 2023 | COFC 82 – 54 W&M |
| Feb 4, 2022 | COFC 84 – 61 W&M |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | W&M | COFC |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 10-23 | 27-8 |
| Conference | 4-14 | 15-3 |
| Home | 7-7 | 13-2 |
| Away | 2-13 | 10-2 |
| Neutral | 1-3 | 4-4 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 68.5 | 80.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.2 | 74.0 |
| Massey | -10.1 (#320) | 2.9 (#127) |
| Bradley-Terry | -2.01 (#332) | 0.84 (#111) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.41 (#330) | 1.01 (#112) |
| RPI | 0.390 (#338) | 0.544 (#105) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | W&M | COFC |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.7% | 43.4% |
| 3PT% | 32.3% | 32.4% |
| REB / G | 33.0 | 40.0 |
| OREB / G | 9.2 | 13.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.05 | 1.36 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.4% | 51.1% |
| TOV% | 16.3% | 14.8% |
| ORB% | 25.6% | 33.6% |
| FT Rate | 25.0% | 20.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.8% | 51.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 14.5% | 15.7% |
| DRB% | 72.6% | 72.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.3% | 20.8% |
Game Analysis
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