Betting Lines
| Spread | TOW -1.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 135.5 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | TOW win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | TOW +21 | 115 | Won |
| Massey | HOF -0.1 (+21.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 138.7 (-23.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 50% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 46% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | TOW -0.5 (+20.5) | 137.3 (-22.3) | 45% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | TOW -1.3 (+19.7) | 137.1 (-22.1) | 54% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | TOW -0.1 (+20.9) | 137.7 (-22.7) | 50% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | TOW -0.1 (+20.9) | 139.2 (-24.2) | 45% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 10, 2026 | HOF 68 – 65 TOW |
| Feb 7, 2026 | HOF 71 – 49 TOW |
| Jan 8, 2026 | HOF 78 – 67 TOW |
| Jan 17, 2025 | TOW 65 – 60 HOF |
| Feb 3, 2024 | HOF 59 – 56 TOW |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | TOW | HOF |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 21-12 | 25-10 |
| Conference | 12-6 | 16-2 |
| Home | 10-2 | 11-2 |
| Away | 8-7 | 11-5 |
| Neutral | 3-3 | 3-3 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.8 | 74.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 66.7 | 66.9 |
| Massey | -0.4 (#178) | 3.7 (#114) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.29 (#150) | 0.95 (#95) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.29 (#153) | 1.25 (#91) |
| RPI | 0.505 (#168) | 0.568 (#67) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | TOW | HOF |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.5% | 47.4% |
| 3PT% | 34.4% | 37.2% |
| REB / G | 36.5 | 31.6 |
| OREB / G | 12.2 | 6.6 |
| AST / TO | 1.09 | 1.08 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.2% | 54.7% |
| TOV% | 19.4% | 17.4% |
| ORB% | 35.2% | 21.1% |
| FT Rate | 22.5% | 18.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.5% | 49.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.8% | 18.1% |
| DRB% | 72.6% | 67.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.1% | 16.7% |
Game Analysis
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