Betting Lines
| Spread | TOW -4.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 124.5 Over |
| Money | TOW -210 HOF +175 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | TOW win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | TOW +5 | 125 | Won |
| Massey | TOW -3.3 (+1.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 121.8 (+3.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 58% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 61% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | TOW -2.3 (+2.7) | 128.3 (-3.3) | 69% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | TOW -2.0 (+3.0) | 126.8 (-1.8) | 61% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | TOW -2.3 (+2.7) | 127.7 (-2.7) | 56% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | TOW -3.1 (+1.9) | 130.5 (-5.5) | 66% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 10, 2026 | HOF 68 – 65 TOW |
| Feb 7, 2026 | HOF 71 – 49 TOW |
| Jan 8, 2026 | HOF 78 – 67 TOW |
| Feb 3, 2024 | HOF 59 – 56 TOW |
| Feb 3, 2023 | HOF 76 – 72 TOW |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | TOW | HOF |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 22-11 | 15-18 |
| Conference | 16-2 | 6-12 |
| Home | 12-1 | 6-7 |
| Away | 9-5 | 5-9 |
| Neutral | 1-5 | 4-2 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.4 | 64.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.7 | 65.6 |
| Massey | -2.0 (#197) | -1.6 (#190) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.00 (#173) | 0.34 (#139) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.16 (#182) | 0.16 (#158) |
| RPI | 0.526 (#129) | 0.539 (#98) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | TOW | HOF |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 39.9% | 40.4% |
| 3PT% | 30.5% | 32.2% |
| REB / G | 37.4 | 34.9 |
| OREB / G | 13.3 | 7.7 |
| AST / TO | 1.03 | 0.93 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 45.3% | 47.3% |
| TOV% | 15.1% | 19.3% |
| ORB% | 34.5% | 22.6% |
| FT Rate | 18.2% | 20.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.6% | 44.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.0% | 16.4% |
| DRB% | 72.6% | 69.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.1% | 24.4% |
Game Analysis
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