Betting Lines
| Spread | NCAT -5.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 147.5 Under |
| Money | HAMP +220 NCAT -225 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | HAMP win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | NCAT +12 | 146 | Lost |
| Massey | NCAT -3.8 (-8.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 150.3 (-4.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 29% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 25% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | NCAT -4.3 (-7.7) | 148.3 (-2.3) | 31% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | NCAT -3.9 (-8.1) | 145.5 (+0.5) | 36% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | NCAT -4.1 (-7.9) | 146.6 (-0.6) | 30% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | NCAT -4.8 (-7.2) | 147.1 (-1.1) | 28% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 14, 2026 | NCAT 71 – 70 HAMP |
| Jan 20, 2026 | HAMP 82 – 61 NCAT |
| Jan 21, 2025 | HAMP 74 – 73 NCAT |
| Dec 4, 2024 | HAMP 82 – 71 NCAT |
| Feb 2, 2024 | NCAT 59 – 58 HAMP |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | HAMP | NCAT |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 8-24 | 13-19 |
| Conference | 5-13 | 8-10 |
| Home | 7-6 | 8-5 |
| Away | 1-13 | 4-10 |
| Neutral | 0-5 | 1-4 |
| Last 5 | 0-5 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 67.5 | 68.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 78.1 | 75.6 |
| Massey | -13.9 (#352) | -6.3 (#276) |
| Bradley-Terry | -2.46 (#350) | -0.88 (#266) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -3.04 (#352) | -1.17 (#266) |
| RPI | 0.395 (#340) | 0.464 (#245) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | HAMP | NCAT |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 37.9% | 41.3% |
| 3PT% | 32.8% | 33.4% |
| REB / G | 32.7 | 33.5 |
| OREB / G | 10.1 | 8.6 |
| AST / TO | 0.95 | 0.79 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 44.3% | 48.4% |
| TOV% | 16.4% | 18.4% |
| ORB% | 25.2% | 24.2% |
| FT Rate | 22.7% | 18.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 56.0% | 52.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.9% | 14.9% |
| DRB% | 67.9% | 70.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.5% | 21.3% |
Game Analysis
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