Betting Lines
| Spread | HAMP -3.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 137.5 Over |
| Money | NCAT +145 HAMP -175 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | NCAT win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | NCAT +1 | 141 | Won |
| Massey | HAMP -1.3 (+2.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 142.9 (-1.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 40% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 39% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | HAMP -1.7 (+2.7) | 138.4 (+2.6) | 43% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | HAMP -2.3 (+3.3) | 137.6 (+3.4) | 42% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | HAMP -1.3 (+2.3) | 137.8 (+3.2) | 46% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | HAMP -1.5 (+2.5) | 139.4 (+1.6) | 44% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 20, 2026 | HAMP 82 – 61 NCAT |
| Jan 21, 2025 | HAMP 74 – 73 NCAT |
| Dec 4, 2024 | HAMP 82 – 71 NCAT |
| Feb 2, 2024 | NCAT 59 – 58 HAMP |
| Jan 16, 2024 | NCAT 81 – 80 HAMP |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | NCAT | HAMP |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 11-19 | 13-19 |
| Conference | 4-14 | 7-11 |
| Home | 6-6 | 10-2 |
| Away | 4-11 | 2-12 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 1-5 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L4 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.9 | 68.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 78.5 | 72.1 |
| Massey | -6.7 (#269) | -5.4 (#253) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.28 (#282) | -0.86 (#247) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.77 (#289) | -1.30 (#259) |
| RPI | 0.438 (#294) | 0.457 (#255) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | NCAT | HAMP |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.1% | 40.4% |
| 3PT% | 31.0% | 29.3% |
| REB / G | 37.5 | 35.7 |
| OREB / G | 11.0 | 12.4 |
| AST / TO | 0.86 | 0.93 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.3% | 45.7% |
| TOV% | 18.8% | 17.6% |
| ORB% | 31.9% | 33.7% |
| FT Rate | 32.3% | 28.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.1% | 51.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 14.4% | 17.9% |
| DRB% | 72.8% | 70.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 26.5% | 30.6% |
Game Analysis
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