Betting Lines
| Spread | HAMP -2.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 146.5 Over |
| Money | NCAT +115 HAMP -135 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | NCAT win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | HAMP +1 | 147 | Lost |
| Massey | HAMP -2.2 (+1.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 145.3 (+1.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 21% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 16% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | HAMP -2.6 (+1.6) | 144.0 (+3.0) | 36% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | HAMP -2.5 (+1.5) | 144.0 (+3.0) | 40% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | HAMP -2.9 (+1.9) | 141.7 (+5.3) | 34% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | HAMP -3.0 (+2.0) | 142.6 (+4.4) | 41% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 14, 2026 | NCAT 71 – 70 HAMP |
| Jan 20, 2026 | HAMP 82 – 61 NCAT |
| Dec 4, 2024 | HAMP 82 – 71 NCAT |
| Feb 2, 2024 | NCAT 59 – 58 HAMP |
| Jan 16, 2024 | NCAT 81 – 80 HAMP |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | NCAT | HAMP |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 7-25 | 17-16 |
| Conference | 3-15 | 8-10 |
| Home | 5-9 | 10-4 |
| Away | 2-15 | 4-9 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 3-3 |
| Last 5 | 0-5 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L3 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 67.9 | 69.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 76.9 | 70.8 |
| Massey | -9.8 (#319) | -4.1 (#228) |
| Bradley-Terry | -2.70 (#348) | -0.75 (#237) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -3.21 (#341) | -0.79 (#234) |
| RPI | 0.381 (#346) | 0.475 (#225) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | NCAT | HAMP |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.4% | 39.0% |
| 3PT% | 31.6% | 31.2% |
| REB / G | 35.7 | 34.9 |
| OREB / G | 10.6 | 13.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.15 | 1.01 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 45.9% | 45.0% |
| TOV% | 13.5% | 16.6% |
| ORB% | 25.6% | 34.1% |
| FT Rate | 22.0% | 24.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.2% | 53.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.9% | 19.3% |
| DRB% | 67.4% | 70.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.2% | 30.5% |
Game Analysis
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