Betting Lines
| Spread | NCAT -3.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 154.5 Under |
| Money | NCAT -150 HAMP +150 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | NCAT win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | NCAT +1 | 117 | Won |
| Massey | NCAT -7.3 (-6.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 159.4 (-42.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 95% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 95% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | NCAT -5.2 (-4.2) | 151.7 (-34.7) | 74% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | NCAT -5.6 (-4.6) | 152.5 (-35.5) | 77% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | NCAT -5.4 (-4.4) | 149.9 (-32.9) | 73% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | NCAT -5.8 (-4.8) | 150.0 (-33.0) | 69% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 14, 2026 | NCAT 71 – 70 HAMP |
| Jan 20, 2026 | HAMP 82 – 61 NCAT |
| Jan 21, 2025 | HAMP 74 – 73 NCAT |
| Dec 4, 2024 | HAMP 82 – 71 NCAT |
| Jan 16, 2024 | NCAT 81 – 80 HAMP |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | NCAT | HAMP |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 7-25 | 9-24 |
| Conference | 5-13 | 3-15 |
| Home | 4-7 | 5-9 |
| Away | 2-14 | 1-12 |
| Neutral | 1-4 | 3-3 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 0-5 |
| Streak | L10 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 65.6 | 68.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 77.9 | 78.5 |
| Massey | -11.6 (#334) | -15.3 (#352) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.49 (#304) | -3.79 (#361) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.00 (#316) | -4.33 (#360) |
| RPI | 0.433 (#297) | 0.349 (#361) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | NCAT | HAMP |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.3% | 42.3% |
| 3PT% | 30.4% | 32.4% |
| REB / G | 30.3 | 33.5 |
| OREB / G | 8.6 | 10.1 |
| AST / TO | 1.15 | 0.90 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 45.9% | 48.8% |
| TOV% | 13.6% | 19.0% |
| ORB% | 22.7% | 27.7% |
| FT Rate | 26.0% | 21.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 55.0% | 54.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.8% | 15.2% |
| DRB% | 64.1% | 68.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.2% | 26.8% |
Game Analysis
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