Betting Lines
| Spread | HAMP -4.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 148.5 Over |
| Money | HAMP -210 NCAT +175 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | HAMP win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | HAMP +11 | 153 | Won |
| Massey | HAMP -6.0 (+5.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 152.2 (+0.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 68% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 76% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | HAMP -3.6 (+7.4) | 148.1 (+4.9) | 68% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | HAMP -4.0 (+7.0) | 147.5 (+5.5) | 73% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | HAMP -3.1 (+7.9) | 145.5 (+7.5) | 66% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | HAMP -2.7 (+8.3) | 146.3 (+6.7) | 62% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 14, 2026 | NCAT 71 – 70 HAMP |
| Jan 20, 2026 | HAMP 82 – 61 NCAT |
| Jan 21, 2025 | HAMP 74 – 73 NCAT |
| Feb 2, 2024 | NCAT 59 – 58 HAMP |
| Jan 16, 2024 | NCAT 81 – 80 HAMP |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | HAMP | NCAT |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 17-16 | 7-25 |
| Conference | 8-10 | 3-15 |
| Home | 10-4 | 5-9 |
| Away | 4-9 | 2-15 |
| Neutral | 3-3 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.6 | 67.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.8 | 76.9 |
| Massey | -4.6 (#244) | -5.3 (#265) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.12 (#276) | -0.96 (#260) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.35 (#254) | -1.41 (#260) |
| RPI | 0.479 (#213) | 0.484 (#199) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | HAMP | NCAT |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 36.7% | 42.6% |
| 3PT% | 31.5% | 34.5% |
| REB / G | 33.7 | 33.8 |
| OREB / G | 13.4 | 9.2 |
| AST / TO | 0.83 | 1.12 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 42.9% | 48.8% |
| TOV% | 17.2% | 14.2% |
| ORB% | 34.9% | 23.1% |
| FT Rate | 22.2% | 22.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 54.3% | 51.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.0% | 18.6% |
| DRB% | 66.4% | 67.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 30.0% | 24.7% |
Game Analysis
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