Betting Lines
| Spread | HAMP -6.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 143.5 Under |
| Money | HAMP -298 NCAT +240 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | HAMP win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | HAMP +21 | 143 | Won |
| Massey | HAMP -4.2 (+16.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 145.0 (-2.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 70% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 69% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | HAMP -3.7 (+17.3) | 137.2 (+5.8) | 74% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | HAMP -2.2 (+18.8) | 136.6 (+6.4) | 63% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | HAMP -1.8 (+19.2) | 137.1 (+5.9) | 62% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | HAMP -2.4 (+18.6) | 137.5 (+5.5) | 62% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 14, 2026 | NCAT 71 – 70 HAMP |
| Jan 21, 2025 | HAMP 74 – 73 NCAT |
| Dec 4, 2024 | HAMP 82 – 71 NCAT |
| Feb 2, 2024 | NCAT 59 – 58 HAMP |
| Jan 16, 2024 | NCAT 81 – 80 HAMP |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | HAMP | NCAT |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 13-19 | 11-19 |
| Conference | 7-11 | 4-14 |
| Home | 10-2 | 6-6 |
| Away | 2-12 | 4-11 |
| Neutral | 1-5 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 0-5 |
| Streak | L2 | L4 |
| Avg Pts For | 68.0 | 73.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.1 | 78.5 |
| Massey | -5.8 (#255) | -6.7 (#268) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.14 (#269) | -1.42 (#294) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.71 (#280) | -1.86 (#291) |
| RPI | 0.446 (#269) | 0.432 (#296) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | HAMP | NCAT |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.0% | 44.3% |
| 3PT% | 27.0% | 31.1% |
| REB / G | 35.2 | 38.1 |
| OREB / G | 12.3 | 11.5 |
| AST / TO | 0.83 | 0.90 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 45.9% | 49.7% |
| TOV% | 18.9% | 19.2% |
| ORB% | 34.6% | 33.2% |
| FT Rate | 30.9% | 33.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.9% | 52.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.2% | 14.8% |
| DRB% | 68.9% | 73.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 31.9% | 28.0% |
Game Analysis
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