Betting Lines
| Spread | HAMP -3.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 150.5 Over |
| Money | HAMP -167 NCAT +130 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | HAMP win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | NCAT +1 | 161 | Lost |
| Massey | HAMP -0.9 (-1.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 158.5 (+2.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 29% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 29% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | NCAT -0.7 (-0.3) | 149.2 (+11.8) | 40% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | NCAT -0.2 (-0.8) | 150.2 (+10.8) | 43% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | NCAT -0.2 (-0.8) | 150.1 (+10.9) | 41% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | NCAT -0.9 (-0.1) | 150.2 (+10.8) | 41% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 14, 2026 | NCAT 71 – 70 HAMP |
| Jan 20, 2026 | HAMP 82 – 61 NCAT |
| Jan 21, 2025 | HAMP 74 – 73 NCAT |
| Dec 4, 2024 | HAMP 82 – 71 NCAT |
| Feb 2, 2024 | NCAT 59 – 58 HAMP |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | HAMP | NCAT |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 9-24 | 7-25 |
| Conference | 3-15 | 5-13 |
| Home | 5-9 | 4-7 |
| Away | 1-12 | 2-14 |
| Neutral | 3-3 | 1-4 |
| Last 5 | 0-5 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L10 |
| Avg Pts For | 68.0 | 65.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 78.5 | 77.9 |
| Massey | -15.5 (#354) | -12.4 (#340) |
| Bradley-Terry | -3.51 (#360) | -1.87 (#329) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -4.25 (#359) | -2.53 (#330) |
| RPI | 0.346 (#362) | 0.415 (#313) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | HAMP | NCAT |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.3% | 39.9% |
| 3PT% | 29.9% | 29.6% |
| REB / G | 33.9 | 30.1 |
| OREB / G | 10.2 | 8.9 |
| AST / TO | 0.77 | 1.16 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 46.3% | 45.5% |
| TOV% | 20.5% | 13.8% |
| ORB% | 27.3% | 23.3% |
| FT Rate | 23.7% | 25.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.1% | 56.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.2% | 16.9% |
| DRB% | 68.6% | 63.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 29.6% | 21.6% |
Game Analysis
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