Betting Lines
| Spread | PV -3.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 136.5 Over |
| Money | PV -188 ALCN +145 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | PV win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ALCN +9 | 145 | Lost |
| Massey | PV -4.9 (-13.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 139.4 (+5.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 51% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 44% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | PV -2.1 (-11.1) | 140.6 (+4.4) | 50% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | PV -0.9 (-9.9) | 138.9 (+6.1) | 43% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | PV -1.5 (-10.5) | 139.7 (+5.3) | 61% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | PV -1.8 (-10.8) | 139.4 (+5.6) | 50% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 10, 2026 | PV 65 – 56 ALCN |
| Feb 28, 2026 | PV 72 – 51 ALCN |
| Jan 19, 2026 | ALCN 76 – 75 PV |
| Mar 1, 2025 | ALCN 71 – 55 PV |
| Jan 20, 2025 | ALCN 78 – 70 PV |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | PV | ALCN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 13-19 | 18-14 |
| Conference | 9-9 | 15-3 |
| Home | 9-3 | 7-2 |
| Away | 4-14 | 10-10 |
| Neutral | 0-2 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 66.0 | 67.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.3 | 70.6 |
| Massey | -4.9 (#255) | -6.0 (#269) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.03 (#278) | -0.39 (#212) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.25 (#272) | -0.22 (#195) |
| RPI | 0.442 (#287) | 0.490 (#189) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | PV | ALCN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 39.0% | 38.0% |
| 3PT% | 28.5% | 29.5% |
| REB / G | 34.7 | 35.2 |
| OREB / G | 11.8 | 13.7 |
| AST / TO | 0.78 | 0.68 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 43.6% | 42.4% |
| TOV% | 20.0% | 19.5% |
| ORB% | 31.6% | 35.4% |
| FT Rate | 21.5% | 24.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.3% | 52.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.3% | 20.7% |
| DRB% | 72.9% | 66.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 33.7% | 32.1% |
Game Analysis
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