Betting Lines
| Spread | UAB -1.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 143.5 Over |
| Money | MTSU -111 UAB -115 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MTSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MTSU +1 | 147 | Won |
| Massey | UAB -2.4 (+3.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 155.3 (-8.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 56% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 45% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UAB -1.9 (+2.9) | 153.8 (-6.8) | 44% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UAB -2.4 (+3.4) | 147.1 (-0.1) | 46% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UAB -1.5 (+2.5) | 150.4 (-3.4) | 45% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | UAB -1.9 (+2.9) | 152.4 (-5.4) | 46% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 2, 2025 | MTSU 76 – 61 UAB |
| Dec 1, 2024 | MTSU 76 – 69 UAB |
| Nov 22, 2023 | UAB 58 – 57 MTSU |
| Feb 11, 2023 | UAB 92 – 69 MTSU |
| Mar 11, 2022 | UAB 102 – 98 MTSU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MTSU | UAB |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 19-14 | 29-10 |
| Conference | 11-9 | 14-6 |
| Home | 12-2 | 17-2 |
| Away | 3-11 | 7-5 |
| Neutral | 4-1 | 5-3 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.8 | 80.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.0 | 70.7 |
| Massey | 2.6 (#128) | 8.9 (#59) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.54 (#122) | 0.95 (#92) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.51 (#132) | 1.48 (#81) |
| RPI | 0.549 (#95) | 0.551 (#92) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MTSU | UAB |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.6% | 45.7% |
| 3PT% | 32.6% | 36.4% |
| REB / G | 32.2 | 41.3 |
| OREB / G | 10.3 | 14.2 |
| AST / TO | 0.84 | 1.17 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.3% | 51.6% |
| TOV% | 19.2% | 17.8% |
| ORB% | 31.5% | 37.2% |
| FT Rate | 21.0% | 29.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.8% | 48.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 22.8% | 20.6% |
| DRB% | 74.1% | 70.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 28.2% | 23.6% |
Game Analysis
Loading game analysis…
Failed to load game analysis.