Betting Lines
| Spread | MTSU -1.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 139.5 Under |
| Money | MTSU -110 UAB +110 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MTSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UAB +1 | 115 | Lost |
| Massey | MTSU -13.9 (-14.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 137.2 (-22.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 95% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 99% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MTSU -6.6 (-7.6) | 132.1 (-17.1) | 68% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MTSU -9.9 (-10.9) | 134.8 (-19.8) | 81% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | MTSU -10.4 (-11.4) | 135.1 (-20.1) | 74% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MTSU -10.7 (-11.7) | 138.1 (-23.1) | 73% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 2, 2025 | MTSU 76 – 61 UAB |
| Dec 1, 2024 | MTSU 76 – 69 UAB |
| Feb 11, 2023 | UAB 92 – 69 MTSU |
| Jan 17, 2023 | MTSU 74 – 73 UAB |
| Mar 11, 2022 | UAB 102 – 98 MTSU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MTSU | UAB |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 14-19 | 23-12 |
| Conference | 7-9 | 12-6 |
| Home | 11-6 | 12-5 |
| Away | 1-10 | 7-5 |
| Neutral | 2-3 | 4-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-1 | 2-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 64.4 | 77.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.3 | 75.6 |
| Massey | 4.2 (#106) | -2.1 (#220) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.09 (#97) | -0.38 (#213) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.44 (#63) | -0.40 (#201) |
| RPI | 0.620 (#50) | 0.536 (#132) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MTSU | UAB |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 39.9% | 41.6% |
| 3PT% | 31.5% | 29.0% |
| REB / G | 36.3 | 41.5 |
| OREB / G | 12.3 | 13.5 |
| AST / TO | 0.54 | 0.70 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 44.8% | 45.7% |
| TOV% | 17.7% | 19.4% |
| ORB% | 31.9% | 34.8% |
| FT Rate | 28.9% | 28.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.6% | 48.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.6% | 18.2% |
| DRB% | 73.5% | 73.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.2% | 22.1% |
Game Analysis
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