Betting Lines
| Spread | UAB -7.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 137.5 Over |
| Money | MTSU +260 UAB -320 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MTSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UAB +4 | 200 | Lost |
| Massey | UAB -6.1 (+2.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 143.3 (+56.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 38% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 32% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UAB -5.0 (+1.0) | 139.7 (+60.3) | 31% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UAB -6.4 (+2.4) | 138.7 (+61.3) | 27% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UAB -4.8 (+0.8) | 140.9 (+59.1) | 32% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UAB -4.4 (+0.4) | 138.6 (+61.4) | 33% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 2, 2025 | MTSU 76 – 61 UAB |
| Dec 1, 2024 | MTSU 76 – 69 UAB |
| Nov 22, 2023 | UAB 58 – 57 MTSU |
| Feb 11, 2023 | UAB 92 – 69 MTSU |
| Jan 17, 2023 | MTSU 74 – 73 UAB |
Game Analysis
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