Betting Lines
| Spread | UAB -1.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 153.5 Under |
| Money | MTSU -108 UAB -112 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MTSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MTSU +15 | 137 | Won |
| Massey | MTSU -2.4 (+12.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 151.4 (-14.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 74% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 67% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MTSU -1.3 (+13.7) | 146.6 (-9.6) | 52% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MTSU -3.2 (+11.8) | 146.2 (-9.2) | 61% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MTSU -3.0 (+12.0) | 146.6 (-9.6) | 62% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MTSU -2.5 (+12.5) | 149.1 (-12.1) | 50% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 1, 2024 | MTSU 76 – 69 UAB |
| Nov 22, 2023 | UAB 58 – 57 MTSU |
| Feb 11, 2023 | UAB 92 – 69 MTSU |
| Jan 17, 2023 | MTSU 74 – 73 UAB |
| Mar 11, 2022 | UAB 102 – 98 MTSU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MTSU | UAB |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 17-15 | 20-12 |
| Conference | 11-9 | 11-7 |
| Home | 11-4 | 8-9 |
| Away | 5-8 | 10-2 |
| Neutral | 1-3 | 2-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.5 | 78.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.6 | 74.4 |
| Massey | 3.8 (#119) | 6.7 (#85) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.86 (#115) | 0.90 (#109) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.04 (#128) | 1.57 (#95) |
| RPI | 0.596 (#53) | 0.532 (#131) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MTSU | UAB |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.3% | 44.9% |
| 3PT% | 33.3% | 26.5% |
| REB / G | 35.8 | 42.6 |
| OREB / G | 11.6 | 15.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.05 | 1.50 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.8% | 49.1% |
| TOV% | 17.3% | 13.8% |
| ORB% | 31.0% | 38.1% |
| FT Rate | 17.8% | 26.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.7% | 48.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 13.5% | 17.7% |
| DRB% | 71.6% | 76.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 33.2% | 26.6% |
Game Analysis
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