Betting Lines
| Spread | UAB -8.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 148.5 Over |
| Money | UAB -500 MTSU +333 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UAB win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UAB +23 | 161 | Won |
| Massey | UAB -8.5 (+14.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 154.2 (+6.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 75% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 85% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UAB -7.4 (+15.6) | 150.0 (+11.0) | 77% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UAB -7.8 (+15.2) | 148.9 (+12.1) | 81% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UAB -8.1 (+14.9) | 151.7 (+9.3) | 80% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UAB -7.6 (+15.4) | 152.6 (+8.4) | 78% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 2, 2025 | MTSU 76 – 61 UAB |
| Dec 1, 2024 | MTSU 76 – 69 UAB |
| Nov 22, 2023 | UAB 58 – 57 MTSU |
| Jan 17, 2023 | MTSU 74 – 73 UAB |
| Mar 11, 2022 | UAB 102 – 98 MTSU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UAB | MTSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 29-10 | 19-14 |
| Conference | 14-6 | 11-9 |
| Home | 17-2 | 12-2 |
| Away | 7-5 | 3-11 |
| Neutral | 5-3 | 4-1 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 80.0 | 69.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.7 | 69.0 |
| Massey | 8.2 (#69) | 3.3 (#121) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.14 (#80) | 0.67 (#112) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.58 (#71) | 0.58 (#127) |
| RPI | 0.538 (#107) | 0.557 (#79) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UAB | MTSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.6% | 46.5% |
| 3PT% | 35.8% | 35.0% |
| REB / G | 41.4 | 32.3 |
| OREB / G | 14.1 | 10.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.11 | 0.84 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.1% | 52.8% |
| TOV% | 18.1% | 19.9% |
| ORB% | 36.7% | 31.5% |
| FT Rate | 28.4% | 19.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.0% | 51.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.8% | 22.3% |
| DRB% | 71.4% | 71.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.4% | 28.0% |
Game Analysis
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