Betting Lines
| Spread | UNCW -14.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 135.5 Under |
| Money | UNCW -1600 ELON +1100 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UNCW win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UNCW +8 | 116 | Won |
| Massey | UNCW -17.8 (-9.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 135.8 (-19.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UNCW -12.3 (-4.3) | 135.0 (-19.0) | 86% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UNCW -14.8 (-6.8) | 134.9 (-18.9) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UNCW -13.3 (-5.3) | 137.6 (-21.6) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UNCW -13.9 (-5.9) | 136.9 (-20.9) | 87% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 4, 2026 | UNCW 76 – 57 ELON |
| Feb 13, 2026 | UNCW 65 – 54 ELON |
| Feb 16, 2025 | ELON 81 – 70 UNCW |
| Feb 18, 2024 | ELON 73 – 72 UNCW |
| Jan 19, 2024 | UNCW 82 – 70 ELON |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UNCW | ELON |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 24-10 | 8-24 |
| Conference | 12-6 | 6-12 |
| Home | 11-3 | 5-9 |
| Away | 8-6 | 3-12 |
| Neutral | 5-1 | 0-3 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 0-5 |
| Streak | L1 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 67.0 | 63.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 65.2 | 72.2 |
| Massey | 2.3 (#135) | -11.7 (#344) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.46 (#62) | -4.50 (#363) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.81 (#66) | -5.63 (#362) |
| RPI | 0.546 (#101) | 0.342 (#361) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UNCW | ELON |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.2% | 40.4% |
| 3PT% | 33.6% | 28.0% |
| REB / G | 33.5 | 31.3 |
| OREB / G | 10.1 | 7.8 |
| AST / TO | 0.86 | 0.91 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.9% | 46.3% |
| TOV% | 17.9% | 18.3% |
| ORB% | 30.5% | 21.9% |
| FT Rate | 31.2% | 21.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.5% | 53.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.5% | 17.8% |
| DRB% | 71.2% | 67.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 28.3% | 20.5% |
Game Analysis
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