Betting Lines
| Spread | UNCW -9.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 139.5 Over |
| Money | UNCW -650 ELON +425 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UNCW win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ELON +11 | 151 | Lost |
| Massey | UNCW -7.4 (-18.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 141.3 (+9.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 88% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 87% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UNCW -7.0 (-18.0) | 139.3 (+11.7) | 81% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UNCW -8.3 (-19.3) | 141.1 (+9.9) | 83% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UNCW -7.6 (-18.6) | 140.0 (+11.0) | 80% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | UNCW -7.2 (-18.2) | 140.6 (+10.4) | 81% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 4, 2026 | UNCW 76 – 57 ELON |
| Feb 13, 2026 | UNCW 65 – 54 ELON |
| Feb 18, 2024 | ELON 73 – 72 UNCW |
| Jan 19, 2024 | UNCW 82 – 70 ELON |
| Jan 17, 2023 | UNCW 62 – 54 ELON |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UNCW | ELON |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 27-8 | 17-16 |
| Conference | 14-4 | 8-10 |
| Home | 15-3 | 10-4 |
| Away | 9-4 | 6-9 |
| Neutral | 3-1 | 1-3 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L5 |
| Avg Pts For | 76.6 | 71.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.3 | 70.9 |
| Massey | 3.4 (#111) | -0.8 (#174) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.08 (#84) | -0.33 (#201) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.09 (#97) | -0.16 (#180) |
| RPI | 0.557 (#72) | 0.489 (#201) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UNCW | ELON |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.8% | 42.5% |
| 3PT% | 33.9% | 31.2% |
| REB / G | 38.0 | 39.7 |
| OREB / G | 12.2 | 12.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.33 | 0.91 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.0% | 48.9% |
| TOV% | 16.1% | 18.8% |
| ORB% | 35.2% | 36.9% |
| FT Rate | 29.0% | 29.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.4% | 46.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.8% | 13.4% |
| DRB% | 71.4% | 68.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.6% | 17.4% |
Game Analysis
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