Betting Lines
| Spread | UNCW -8.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 149.5 Under |
| Money | UNCW -410 ELON +320 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UNCW win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UNCW +11 | 119 | Won |
| Massey | UNCW -8.6 (+2.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 155.8 (-36.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 89% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 93% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UNCW -9.3 (+1.7) | 149.2 (-30.2) | 81% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UNCW -8.6 (+2.4) | 148.8 (-29.8) | 81% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UNCW -8.3 (+2.7) | 147.7 (-28.7) | 80% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UNCW -7.9 (+3.1) | 150.2 (-31.2) | 81% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 4, 2026 | UNCW 76 – 57 ELON |
| Feb 16, 2025 | ELON 81 – 70 UNCW |
| Feb 18, 2024 | ELON 73 – 72 UNCW |
| Jan 19, 2024 | UNCW 82 – 70 ELON |
| Jan 17, 2023 | UNCW 62 – 54 ELON |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UNCW | ELON |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 27-7 | 14-18 |
| Conference | 15-3 | 6-12 |
| Home | 15-4 | 8-8 |
| Away | 12-2 | 6-9 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L5 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.6 | 76.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.1 | 79.3 |
| Massey | 3.7 (#114) | -1.9 (#196) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.22 (#79) | -0.38 (#208) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.33 (#89) | -0.63 (#215) |
| RPI | 0.561 (#66) | 0.493 (#199) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UNCW | ELON |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.2% | 46.7% |
| 3PT% | 34.9% | 35.4% |
| REB / G | 38.8 | 35.6 |
| OREB / G | 12.5 | 11.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.32 | 1.39 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.9% | 54.3% |
| TOV% | 14.9% | 15.9% |
| ORB% | 35.1% | 33.5% |
| FT Rate | 30.4% | 24.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.8% | 53.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.2% | 16.1% |
| DRB% | 73.1% | 66.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.6% | 25.1% |
Game Analysis
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