Betting Lines
| Spread | UNCW -7.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 148.5 Over |
| Money | ELON +300 UNCW -300 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ELON win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UNCW +12 | 152 | Lost |
| Massey | UNCW -6.8 (-5.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 155.5 (-3.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 21% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 14% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UNCW -5.1 (-6.9) | 151.8 (+0.2) | 24% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UNCW -6.5 (-5.5) | 147.1 (+4.9) | 23% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UNCW -5.7 (-6.3) | 149.2 (+2.8) | 26% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UNCW -5.5 (-6.5) | 150.3 (+1.7) | 30% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 4, 2026 | UNCW 76 – 57 ELON |
| Feb 13, 2026 | UNCW 65 – 54 ELON |
| Feb 16, 2025 | ELON 81 – 70 UNCW |
| Feb 18, 2024 | ELON 73 – 72 UNCW |
| Jan 17, 2023 | UNCW 62 – 54 ELON |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ELON | UNCW |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 13-19 | 21-10 |
| Conference | 6-12 | 12-6 |
| Home | 8-6 | 10-2 |
| Away | 3-11 | 10-6 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.3 | 75.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 76.2 | 71.6 |
| Massey | -7.7 (#294) | 2.8 (#127) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.94 (#265) | 1.09 (#93) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.38 (#279) | 1.19 (#103) |
| RPI | 0.449 (#259) | 0.566 (#76) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ELON | UNCW |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.1% | 42.4% |
| 3PT% | 36.1% | 30.4% |
| REB / G | 34.5 | 33.4 |
| OREB / G | 10.7 | 9.4 |
| AST / TO | 1.08 | 1.12 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.6% | 48.5% |
| TOV% | 17.2% | 12.5% |
| ORB% | 30.2% | 26.1% |
| FT Rate | 22.8% | 28.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.1% | 52.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 14.4% | 16.8% |
| DRB% | 68.1% | 70.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.1% | 26.1% |
Game Analysis
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