Betting Lines
| Spread | UNCW -16.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 143.5 Over |
| Money | UNCW -2000 ELON +1200 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UNCW win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ELON +1 | 145 | Lost |
| Massey | UNCW -17.7 (-18.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 151.7 (-6.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 96% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 98% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UNCW -16.2 (-17.2) | 146.6 (-1.6) | 88% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UNCW -15.9 (-16.9) | 147.6 (-2.6) | 89% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | UNCW -16.1 (-17.1) | 146.1 (-1.1) | 88% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UNCW -15.5 (-16.5) | 145.4 (-0.4) | 87% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 4, 2026 | UNCW 76 – 57 ELON |
| Feb 13, 2026 | UNCW 65 – 54 ELON |
| Feb 16, 2025 | ELON 81 – 70 UNCW |
| Jan 19, 2024 | UNCW 82 – 70 ELON |
| Jan 17, 2023 | UNCW 62 – 54 ELON |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UNCW | ELON |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 21-10 | 13-19 |
| Conference | 12-6 | 6-12 |
| Home | 10-2 | 8-6 |
| Away | 10-6 | 3-11 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.8 | 70.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.6 | 76.2 |
| Massey | 4.9 (#103) | -9.4 (#314) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.32 (#80) | -1.34 (#298) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.41 (#95) | -1.70 (#300) |
| RPI | 0.572 (#58) | 0.437 (#296) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UNCW | ELON |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.4% | 43.2% |
| 3PT% | 33.5% | 35.9% |
| REB / G | 35.4 | 32.6 |
| OREB / G | 10.6 | 9.7 |
| AST / TO | 1.33 | 1.07 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.0% | 50.9% |
| TOV% | 12.8% | 17.4% |
| ORB% | 30.0% | 28.2% |
| FT Rate | 25.3% | 23.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.5% | 53.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.2% | 15.6% |
| DRB% | 70.8% | 66.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.6% | 22.4% |
Game Analysis
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