Betting Lines
| Spread | UNCW -4.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 145.5 Under |
| Money | ELON +180 UNCW -218 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ELON win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UNCW +19 | 133 | Lost |
| Massey | UNCW -4.1 (-14.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 151.7 (-18.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 22% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 15% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UNCW -4.1 (-14.9) | 143.9 (-10.9) | 34% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UNCW -4.0 (-15.0) | 145.3 (-12.3) | 29% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UNCW -4.0 (-15.0) | 146.8 (-13.8) | 33% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UNCW -4.3 (-14.7) | 146.3 (-13.3) | 29% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 13, 2026 | UNCW 65 – 54 ELON |
| Feb 16, 2025 | ELON 81 – 70 UNCW |
| Feb 18, 2024 | ELON 73 – 72 UNCW |
| Jan 19, 2024 | UNCW 82 – 70 ELON |
| Jan 17, 2023 | UNCW 62 – 54 ELON |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ELON | UNCW |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 14-18 | 27-7 |
| Conference | 6-12 | 15-3 |
| Home | 8-8 | 15-4 |
| Away | 6-9 | 12-2 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L5 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 76.8 | 74.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 79.3 | 68.1 |
| Massey | -3.1 (#216) | 4.0 (#109) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.58 (#229) | 1.23 (#78) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.93 (#237) | 1.37 (#89) |
| RPI | 0.486 (#218) | 0.564 (#63) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ELON | UNCW |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.5% | 43.9% |
| 3PT% | 34.9% | 36.0% |
| REB / G | 34.7 | 39.1 |
| OREB / G | 11.5 | 12.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.40 | 1.35 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.9% | 50.9% |
| TOV% | 15.4% | 14.7% |
| ORB% | 32.2% | 35.4% |
| FT Rate | 23.7% | 29.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.8% | 47.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.2% | 14.9% |
| DRB% | 66.3% | 73.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.0% | 22.9% |
Game Analysis
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