I have got the sharpest knife, so I get the biggest slice. "Revolution Rock" - The Clash
Merrimack Warriors
57 – 62
FINAL Conference
Wagner Seahawks
Northeast Conference · Hammel Court · January 17, 2023
Betting Lines
Spread MRMK -2.5 Away covered
O/U 116.5 Over
Money MRMK -125 / WAG +130
Model Predictions
Spread Total MRMK win
Actual WAG +5 119 Lost
Massey MRMK -1.0 (-6.0) — —
Massey Totals — 110.1 (+8.9) —
Bradley-Terry — — 44% ✓
Weighted B-T — — 56% ✗
Efficiency Plus ML ★ WAG -3.1 (-1.9) 123.3 (-4.3) 32% ✓
Baseline Tuned ML WAG -1.1 (-3.9) 121.5 (-2.5) 43% ✓
Baseline ML MRMK -0.0 (-5.0) 123.2 (-4.2) 36% ✓
Baseline Plus ML WAG -1.3 (-3.7) 125.6 (-6.6) 35% ✓

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Last 5 Meetings

Mar 12, 2024 WAG 54 – 47 MRMK
Jan 26, 2024 MRMK 60 – 44 WAG
Jan 20, 2024 WAG 71 – 65 MRMK
Dec 31, 2022 MRMK 58 – 48 WAG
Feb 12, 2022 MRMK 80 – 65 WAG

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings MRMK WAG
Overall 18-16 15-13
Conference 12-4 8-8
Home 10-6 8-4
Away 8-8 7-9
Neutral 0-2 0-0
Last 5 3-2 2-3
Streak W11 L1
Avg Pts For 61.9 61.3
Avg Pts Against 64.0 62.3
Massey -11.0 (#340) -8.1 (#307)
Bradley-Terry -2.21 (#343) -1.31 (#296)
W. Bradley-Terry -2.50 (#338) -1.97 (#313)
RPI 0.411 (#325) 0.427 (#308)
Shooting & Four Factors MRMK WAG
FG% 36.7% 37.3%
3PT% 27.1% 30.4%
REB / G 25.4 35.3
OREB / G 6.2 13.0
AST / TO 0.66 0.97
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 43.1% 43.2%
TOV% 21.6% 18.2%
ORB% 18.4% 32.9%
FT Rate 24.3% 16.4%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 50.4% 49.5%
Opp TOV% 26.2% 21.5%
DRB% 60.3% 75.3%
Opp FT Rate 21.7% 42.0%

Game Analysis

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