Betting Lines
| Spread | WAG -5.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 121.5 Under |
| Money | WAG -225 MRMK +230 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | WAG win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MRMK +10 | 106 | Lost |
| Massey | WAG -11.6 (-21.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 114.3 (-8.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 99% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | WAG -10.2 (-20.2) | 119.0 (-13.0) | 66% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | WAG -7.4 (-17.4) | 125.1 (-19.1) | 74% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | WAG -8.5 (-18.5) | 124.3 (-18.3) | 57% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | WAG -8.1 (-18.1) | 124.2 (-18.2) | 64% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 12, 2024 | WAG 54 – 47 MRMK |
| Jan 26, 2024 | MRMK 60 – 44 WAG |
| Jan 20, 2024 | WAG 71 – 65 MRMK |
| Jan 17, 2023 | WAG 62 – 57 MRMK |
| Feb 12, 2022 | MRMK 80 – 65 WAG |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | WAG | MRMK |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 15-13 | 18-16 |
| Conference | 8-8 | 12-4 |
| Home | 8-4 | 10-6 |
| Away | 7-9 | 8-8 |
| Neutral | 0-0 | 0-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 0-5 |
| Streak | L1 | W11 |
| Avg Pts For | 61.3 | 61.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 62.3 | 64.0 |
| Massey | -5.8 (#278) | -12.7 (#351) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.14 (#186) | -3.92 (#361) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.82 (#238) | -5.18 (#361) |
| RPI | 0.479 (#211) | 0.372 (#352) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | WAG | MRMK |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 38.3% | 35.9% |
| 3PT% | 32.9% | 25.0% |
| REB / G | 35.2 | 23.8 |
| OREB / G | 12.3 | 5.7 |
| AST / TO | 1.04 | 0.62 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 44.7% | 42.0% |
| TOV% | 17.3% | 22.0% |
| ORB% | 31.4% | 16.4% |
| FT Rate | 16.0% | 20.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.3% | 53.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.3% | 26.1% |
| DRB% | 74.8% | 59.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 37.9% | 22.3% |
Game Analysis
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