Betting Lines
| Spread | MRMK -1.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 124.5 Under |
| Money | WAG +125 MRMK -120 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | WAG win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MRMK +16 | 104 | Lost |
| Massey | MRMK -1.5 (-14.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 118.7 (-14.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 59% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 49% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MRMK -2.4 (-13.6) | 127.2 (-23.2) | 39% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MRMK -2.3 (-13.7) | 122.9 (-18.9) | 41% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MRMK -2.0 (-14.0) | 123.6 (-19.6) | 40% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MRMK -2.3 (-13.7) | 126.7 (-22.7) | 41% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 12, 2024 | WAG 54 – 47 MRMK |
| Jan 20, 2024 | WAG 71 – 65 MRMK |
| Jan 17, 2023 | WAG 62 – 57 MRMK |
| Dec 31, 2022 | MRMK 58 – 48 WAG |
| Feb 12, 2022 | MRMK 80 – 65 WAG |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | WAG | MRMK |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 17-16 | 21-12 |
| Conference | 7-9 | 13-3 |
| Home | 7-5 | 13-2 |
| Away | 9-10 | 7-9 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 62.0 | 67.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 64.1 | 64.6 |
| Massey | -6.9 (#288) | -1.7 (#196) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.94 (#265) | -0.61 (#234) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.59 (#292) | -0.78 (#236) |
| RPI | 0.444 (#276) | 0.478 (#211) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | WAG | MRMK |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 38.2% | 42.3% |
| 3PT% | 32.0% | 29.3% |
| REB / G | 34.1 | 29.8 |
| OREB / G | 10.5 | 7.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.18 | 0.92 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 44.5% | 48.7% |
| TOV% | 15.9% | 18.8% |
| ORB% | 28.0% | 20.9% |
| FT Rate | 19.1% | 24.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.6% | 46.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.1% | 23.0% |
| DRB% | 71.0% | 64.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.9% | 25.0% |
Game Analysis
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