Betting Lines
| Spread | UCI -2.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 134.5 Over |
| Money | UCI -138 UCSB +110 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UCI win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UCSB +8 | 138 | Lost |
| Massey | UCI -6.4 (-14.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 136.5 (+1.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 62% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 65% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UCI -4.7 (-12.7) | 136.0 (+2.0) | 64% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UCI -3.6 (-11.6) | 134.6 (+3.4) | 66% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UCI -5.6 (-13.6) | 138.0 (-0.0) | 71% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | UCI -5.0 (-13.0) | 138.8 (-0.8) | 67% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 1, 2026 | UCI 64 – 60 UCSB |
| Feb 8, 2026 | UCSB 84 – 79 UCI |
| Mar 9, 2025 | UCI 97 – 88 UCSB |
| Feb 14, 2025 | UCI 62 – 60 UCSB |
| Feb 23, 2024 | UCI 81 – 69 UCSB |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UCI | UCSB |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 23-12 | 27-8 |
| Conference | 15-5 | 15-5 |
| Home | 11-4 | 12-3 |
| Away | 9-7 | 10-4 |
| Neutral | 3-1 | 5-1 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.9 | 71.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.1 | 66.0 |
| Massey | 6.4 (#83) | 3.9 (#108) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.82 (#100) | 1.00 (#87) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.09 (#97) | 1.26 (#89) |
| RPI | 0.528 (#125) | 0.521 (#140) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UCI | UCSB |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.0% | 47.6% |
| 3PT% | 39.9% | 33.0% |
| REB / G | 36.3 | 34.1 |
| OREB / G | 10.0 | 9.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.07 | 1.00 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.5% | 52.2% |
| TOV% | 18.2% | 20.0% |
| ORB% | 29.1% | 29.6% |
| FT Rate | 21.6% | 26.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.1% | 48.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.0% | 21.2% |
| DRB% | 73.9% | 74.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 27.1% | 20.9% |
Game Analysis
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