Betting Lines
| Spread | UCI -8.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 141.5 Under |
| Money | UCI -500 UCSB +360 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UCI win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UCI +2 | 122 | Won |
| Massey | UCI -10.4 (-8.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 138.7 (-16.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 92% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 94% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UCI -9.8 (-7.8) | 142.0 (-20.0) | 83% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UCI -10.1 (-8.1) | 141.4 (-19.4) | 85% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UCI -10.3 (-8.3) | 141.0 (-19.0) | 84% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UCI -9.8 (-7.8) | 143.5 (-21.5) | 82% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 1, 2026 | UCI 64 – 60 UCSB |
| Feb 8, 2026 | UCSB 84 – 79 UCI |
| Mar 9, 2025 | UCI 97 – 88 UCSB |
| Feb 23, 2024 | UCI 81 – 69 UCSB |
| Feb 9, 2024 | UCI 76 – 61 UCSB |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UCI | UCSB |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 32-7 | 21-13 |
| Conference | 17-3 | 11-9 |
| Home | 13-2 | 12-5 |
| Away | 14-3 | 7-7 |
| Neutral | 5-2 | 2-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.8 | 73.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.4 | 69.4 |
| Massey | 8.9 (#65) | 1.6 (#133) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.24 (#41) | 0.37 (#142) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.34 (#54) | 0.17 (#160) |
| RPI | 0.602 (#31) | 0.477 (#221) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UCI | UCSB |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.6% | 47.2% |
| 3PT% | 35.4% | 39.6% |
| REB / G | 39.4 | 34.0 |
| OREB / G | 9.5 | 8.7 |
| AST / TO | 1.18 | 1.14 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.6% | 56.3% |
| TOV% | 18.8% | 19.3% |
| ORB% | 28.3% | 28.2% |
| FT Rate | 30.3% | 21.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 45.4% | 48.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.8% | 17.0% |
| DRB% | 74.3% | 72.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 15.1% | 23.9% |
Game Analysis
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