Betting Lines
| Spread | UCI -3.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 144.5 Under |
| Money | UCSB +138 UCI -175 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UCSB win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UCI +15 | 137 | Lost |
| Massey | UCI -4.5 (-10.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 144.1 (-7.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 31% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 27% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UCI -2.3 (-12.7) | 140.5 (-3.5) | 36% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UCI -2.5 (-12.5) | 141.5 (-4.5) | 34% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UCI -3.0 (-12.0) | 142.2 (-5.2) | 39% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UCI -2.7 (-12.3) | 141.4 (-4.4) | 38% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 1, 2026 | UCI 64 – 60 UCSB |
| Feb 8, 2026 | UCSB 84 – 79 UCI |
| Mar 9, 2025 | UCI 97 – 88 UCSB |
| Feb 14, 2025 | UCI 62 – 60 UCSB |
| Feb 23, 2024 | UCI 81 – 69 UCSB |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UCSB | UCI |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 16-15 | 24-10 |
| Conference | 9-11 | 17-3 |
| Home | 9-7 | 13-0 |
| Away | 6-7 | 8-9 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 3-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L2 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.1 | 76.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 73.3 | 68.8 |
| Massey | 0.7 (#153) | 8.5 (#70) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.01 (#173) | 1.42 (#71) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.06 (#165) | 1.73 (#76) |
| RPI | 0.494 (#184) | 0.579 (#53) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UCSB | UCI |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 49.6% | 46.6% |
| 3PT% | 37.7% | 36.2% |
| REB / G | 35.7 | 37.5 |
| OREB / G | 7.9 | 10.1 |
| AST / TO | 0.98 | 1.25 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 55.1% | 51.6% |
| TOV% | 19.8% | 17.9% |
| ORB% | 26.5% | 30.5% |
| FT Rate | 29.1% | 24.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.2% | 44.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 14.0% | 18.1% |
| DRB% | 75.0% | 72.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.7% | 24.0% |
Game Analysis
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